Is the Future of Games Instant?

Emily Greer and Lars Doucet Talk About the Past and Future of Instant Games

Aug 09, 2021

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Over the past year, a new thesis has emerged around a great new opportunity area in games. The recent funding of Playco for $100M at a valuation of over $1B last September caused a lot of head-scratching within the gaming industry.

And yet, suddenly, several venture capital investors have become very excited about the potential for instant games that get turbo-powered on top of social media virality.

Case in point, Jon Lai from Andreessen Horowitz:

Jon Lai @Tocelot

The future of games is instant ⏱️ A new generation of instant games is melding the accessibility of Flash games with the performance of native apps. These games are poised to reshape the market for both players & creators 🎨 But wait, what are instant games? Thread 👇

To keep it real for a sec… while I’m a fan of Jon and follow him on Twitter (you should too!), I was scratching my head about what all the hubbub is around instant games recently.

And then, there’s Lars Doucet. Shortly after this tweet from Jon, I kept seeing people post a link to this blog post from Lars:

Fortress of Doors: The Future of Games is an Instant Flash to the past

After seeing this post get shared for the 10th time on Slack, Discord, Twitter, and just about everywhere else, I finally read the post and followed Lars on Twitter.

While I typically shy away from some of the long-form intellectual posturings from some people in the industry, this post was straight-up GOLD!

I had to find out more, and so speaking on the future of Instant Games, we did a deep dive discussion with not only Lars Doucet but also Emily Greer who brings a wealth of knowledge from her career in games and based on her learnings from her previous role as founder and CEO of Kongregate.

Key Takeaways:

VCs likely see the opportunity in instant games based on the premise that instant games can leverage social platforms to gain massive viral distribution, the ability to play something very easily with as little friction as possible, and bypass app store fees.
We can also view instant games as expanding the overall market for gamers by providing access to games on platforms and geographies in which typical gamers don’t typically play.
Some game platforms are getting grouped as part of the instant games TAM (total addressable market). However, the friction with cloud gaming requiring registration/credit card input, etc., likely makes them different from other platforms like games on messenger apps or in Web browsers.
One of the biggest concerns with instant games is how ephemeral they are. There is a big question about how long-lasting instant games can retain their players.
A major data point for instant games is Friday Night Funkin (aka FNF), a Dance Dance Revolution type of music rhythm game. The game had over 4B views on its TikTok hashtag. The game also figured out a way of making money on Spotify. It’s also available in 2 places: Newgrounds and itch.io. “Not 2 places you would expect in 2020.”
Sharing is a bigger element for instant gaming going viral today. Hence, things like the ability to cosplay characters in the game or modding and supporting user-generated content help drive these games viral.
To some degree, instant games serve as a distribution and product model for smaller developers: A way in which small indies can deliver a smaller game experience for, say, less than $10 and not have to compete with bigger publishers.
Getting players back to instant games is a key inhibitor. Having an app icon on mobile or social notifications has a massive impact on driving retention back to games. It’s not clear whether platforms will create these mechanisms to help support instant games retention.
The history of distribution platforms for instant games like Facebook Instant has not yet been very successful. So far, between the cloud streaming platforms, iOS App Clips, Wechat Mini apps, Twitch, Discord, Tiktok, Facebook Instant, Snapchat Minis, etc., it’s not clear whether a viable instant platform will emerge. One of the biggest concerns for the platform will be an economic model that supports creators. “Don’t strip mine creators.” Further, distribution platforms may need to create infrastructure to help build awareness and retention for creators on their platforms.
The final key inhibitor for instant games will be the economic model. While most casual and hyper-casual games will likely be driven by ad revenue, we still need an easy way to pay and support IAP in these instant games. IAP within proprietary platforms like Roblox is already supported. However, there is no good way to support IAP everywhere.
Could a company like Roblox or Epic create an externalized and portable payment layer to help support instant games where ever they are played?
Weird things are starting to happen, and our understanding of what’s possible is changing for monetization. e.g., FNF making money on Spotify.