📈 Last War Surviving and Thriving at #2 Revenue Worldwide
Hey Gamemakers,
What a crazy week to be a game developer. One of the big lessons for me this week was just how much success or failure in game studios comes down to human feelings and emotions.
Further, just how poorly relationships can get completely destroyed based on miscommunication or very simple misunderstandings.
Be careful out there!
This week, we examine Last War: Survival Game, which has been growing like crazy. And just how crazy are the game’s numbers?
The game globally launched on August 18, 2023, on both Android and iOS
Cumulative downloads and revenue:
Downloads: 37.4M
Store Revenue (net): $307.4M
Most recent RPD (5/1/2024) = $14.91
2024 revenue CAGR = 5,452%
Check out the full analysis below!
Mobile Revenues Shrink with Less Play Time
A new industry report from Newzoo reveals that PC gaming is on the rise, while mobile gaming faces a decline due to monetization restrictions by Apple and Google. The global games market generated $183.9 billion in 2023, with PC gaming growing 8.4% year-on-year to $39.6 billion. Console games saw minimal growth, and mobile gaming (the largest segment) dropped by 2.1%. Playtime hours have also decreased significantly. Despite challenges, Newzoo predicts industry revenue will reach $207 billion by 2026. (Metro)
PlayStation Developing F2P Mobile Platform
PlayStation is developing a new platform for free-to-play mobile games, as indicated by a job listing for a mobile platform architect. The role involves designing the system architecture, enhancing platform security, and integrating with PlayStation services. This move follows Xbox's announcement of its Xbox mobile store launch in July 2024. The initiative highlights PlayStation's increasing focus on the mobile gaming space. (Insider Gaming)
Mobile Gaming Trends
2024 is seeing a significant focus on quality over quantity in mobile games, hybrid monetization models combining in-app purchases and advertising, and the rise of cross-platform game development to enhance player experiences across devices. (Business of Apps)
Gaming Startups to Watch
The "Game Changers 2024" list highlighted innovative startups like Gardens, Astrocade, and StatusPro, making waves with their unique game development and technology approaches. (VentureBeat)
Player Behavior Trends
A report revealed that almost half of players use games for self-expression, with many also using games for social connection. This highlights the evolving role of gaming in people's lives. (GamesIndustry.biz)
Grand Theft Auto VI
#1 on Nielsen's Top 10:
Grand Theft Auto VI continues to dominate anticipation charts, likely due to the lack of concrete release date news. (Nielsen).
GTA 6 Release Date Announced for Autumn 2025:
Grand Theft Auto 6 will be released in autumn 2025, announced by Take-Two Interactive during an earnings call. The trailer has over 190 million views on YouTube. Analyst Piers Harding-Rolls predicts it could be the most expensive game ever due to its long development. GTA 5's success, with 200 million units sold, has allowed Rockstar to take its time. The 2025 release may disappoint console platforms and retailers hoping for an earlier launch. Meanwhile, Nintendo plans to announce a successor to the Switch console by March 2025. (BBC)
Bandai Namco’s Sales Soar While Profits Plummet
In fiscal year 2024, Bandai Namco achieved record net sales of ¥1.05 trillion ($6.7 billion), surpassing forecasts. Despite this, operating and recurring profits fell significantly due to decreased digital sales and a revamp of the games lineup. While contributing, mobile games were not prominently mentioned. The company anticipates a recovery in profits for the fiscal year 2025, with projected net sales of ¥1.08 trillion ($6.9 billion). (PocketGamer)
~ One-third of Gamers Only Play Mobile Games
In 2023, nearly two-thirds (61%) of the U.S. population engaged in gaming, according to the ESA's Essential Facts Report conducted with YouGov. This survey included 5,000 respondents, with a significant portion being children. The inclusion of younger gamers in the survey highlighted a notable trend: nearly one-third (31%) of gamers play exclusively on mobile devices, up from 12% in previous years. Additionally, 78% of gamers use mobile platforms, reflecting the growing influence of mobile gaming. This shift underscores the changing landscape of gaming, where mobile platforms are becoming increasingly significant. (IGN)
ByteDance Appoints New CEO for Moonton
ByteDance has appointed Zhang Yunfan, a former executive at Perfect World, as the new CEO of Moonton Technology, the creator of Mobile Legends: Bang Bang. This move signals a strategic shift as ByteDance consolidates its video gaming operations. Despite scaling back its gaming projects and selling off assets, ByteDance has chosen to retain Moonton, focusing on its growth in the global MOBA market. Moonton, a key player with its hit game Mobile Legends, ranks 11th in global revenue among Chinese mobile game publishers and continues to thrive in the esports arena. (SCMP)
Honor of Kings Set for Global Launch
Tencent's hit mobile MOBA, Honor of Kings, will launch globally on June 20th, following its massive success in China with over $15 billion in revenue. Despite previous struggles to capture the Western market with its counterpart, Arena of Valor, Tencent is making another attempt. Developed by TiMi Studio, the global version will feature new IP partnerships, region-specific events, and a commitment to avoid "pay-to-win" mechanics. The launch aims to leverage the growing trend of mobile esports in the West, with significant investments in a global esports ecosystem and participation in major tournaments like the Esports World Cup in Riyadh. (PocketGamer)
Top 10 Mobile Charts (Worldwide, US, and China)
Solo Leveling is holding at #1 Top Downloads and making a big push to #6 Top Revenue, nearly overtaking Monopoly Go.
Last War: Survival Game is the new #2 Top Revenue game, and Candy Crush pushes past Monopoly Go.
Oddly, Subway Surfers, at #6 Top Downloads, generally beats the two other runner games with significant IP power: Minion Rush and Sonic Dash.
Top Revenue is oddly very stable.
New at #3 Top Downloads, "西游：笔绘西行" (Journey to the West: Painted Journey) is an RPG team battle, 2D turn-based strategy card game featuring a unique Chinese comic art style. The game features familiar characters and monsters from the classic "Journey to the West" tale.
At #4 Top Downloads, "出发吧麦芬" (Let's Go, Muffin) is an idle RPG game featuring a collaboration with "线条小狗" (Doodle Dog).
At #7 Top Downloads, Octopath Traveler: Champions of the Continent is a team-battle RPG and prequel to the Nintendo Switch game Octopath Traveler. The game first launched in Japan in October 2020 and globally in July 2022.
Top 10 Mobile Publishers
Onefun cracks the Top 10 list this past week. It’s the game studio behind the newly #2 Top Revenue game worldwide: Last War Survival Game.
Top 10 Steam Games
Where have all the indies gone?
🔦 Last War is having the last laugh as it blows by competition to hit #2 Worldwide Revenue
Onefun’s Last War: Survival Game revenue is going nuclear.
When I say nuclear, I mean it:
MARKET DATA
According to SensorTower estimates, the game has currently generated, since global launch on August 18, 2023:
Downloads: 37.4M
Store Revenue (net): $307.4M
Viewing the data geographically, we note that Asian countries, especially Korea, not only generate lots of revenue for the game but also outperform relative to the downloads the game gets from the country.
Monetization growth has been significant, especially in 2024, but may have leveled out since last month.
Average Revenue Per Download (RPD) by Month:
GAMEPLAY OVERVIEW
OneFun’s Last War: Survival Game follows the same game model playbook popularized by Century Game’s Whiteout Survival. It includes a base hypercasual-style gameplay mode but then shifts to a 4X game.
Hence, this game relies on ads that promote and drive installs, similar to a hypercasual game, but ultimately generates per-user monetization at 4X game levels.
Hypercasual gameplay:
4X gameplay:
GAME SENTIMENT
The top comments in terms of sentiment include the following.
Top 3 Positive:
Engaging Gameplay:
Players appreciate the combination of base building, resource management, and strategic combat, which provides a rich and engaging gameplay experience (Medieval Fun) (Medieval Fun).
Alliance Features:
The alliance system is well-received, offering benefits like increased resource production, faster building times, and enhanced unit stats. Participating in alliance rallies and contributing to alliance techs are rewarding activities (Medieval Fun).
Hero and Survivor System:
The game’s hero and survivor systems add depth to the gameplay. Players enjoy upgrading their heroes and survivors to enhance performance and receive bonuses for different activities (Medieval Fun).
Top 3 Negative:
Heavy Monetization:
Many players criticize the game for its heavy reliance on in-app purchases. Essential items and upgrades are often locked behind paywalls, making it difficult for free-to-play players to progress (Apple) (Play Google).
Misleading Advertisements:
Some players feel that the game does not match its advertisements. They report that the gameplay focuses more on base building and resource management than the action-packed survival experience shown in ads (Apple).
Technical Issues:
Complaints about technical issues such as server problems, lag, and bugs affect the overall gaming experience. These issues can disrupt gameplay and reduce enjoyment (Medieval Fun).
It looks it didn't take long for PS to make their move on mobile market after Xbox. In few years if you want to release your game on all mobile platforms, you'll need to comply with 10 different guidelines 😅