🎙️ The Measurement Crisis (for Mobile UA)
🎙️ The Measurement Crisis (for Mobile UA)
How to combat IDFA and fingerprinting deprecation to win in mobile gaming!
Look for a new interview every week discussing current and relevant game industry development topics!
This week, Insights (usually published on Fridays) and Marketwire (usually published last Wednesday) are delayed as I’m heavily behind on work and lots of family stuff, but Insights is here (you’re reading it). Marketwire will be out sometime later today as well.
With that out of the way, I’m also super excited to announce:
Chris Hoyt, CEO of MetricWorks, will be joining GameMakers as a content partner with a focus on marketing & user acquisition.
As part of an initial kick-off, we are partnering to deliver a 5-part series focused on user acquisition called State of Measurement in a Privacy-first World.
New Series: State of Measurement in a Privacy-first World
We are seeing severe impacts around privacy and the ability to measure. So, we wanted to put together a five-part series helping advertisers understand the measurement crisis and the different tools and measurement signals available.
The first podcast in the series will be the overview of the measurement crisis.
The second podcast will be the real state of last touch and the real value that last touch is bringing you.
The third podcast will be an education on an incrementality testing and how it can be leveraged in a privacy first world.
The fourth one will be the promise of MTA 2. 0 and data clean rooms. So you understand some of the more fringe benefits of tools that are coming to you that may impact last touch.
The last podcast is a summary roadmap to measurement success, helping you, the advertiser, take all that you've been educated on, turn it into action and succeed.
- Chris Hoyt
Today kicks off the first episode in this series, which you can check out below!
🎧 Listen on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or Anchor ← Subscribe now!
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Speakers:
Andrew Covato. Managing Director at Growth by Science.
Joseph Kim. CEO at Lila Games.
Warren Woodward. Chief Growth Officer at Upptic.
John Wright. VP Mobile Publishing at Kwalee.
How to do User Acquisition (UA) in a Post Fingerprint World 🤞
The Setup
The world has changed again.
Two significant changes in the competitive landscape for success in mobile games:
Growth as a Main Pillar: Growth has, once again, become a primary basis of competition for mobile game success.
A Privacy-first Mobile World: The implementation of privacy-first policies initiated by Apple have created a complex environment for mobile marketers to measure effectiveness of user acquisition campaigns.
Today I believe we’re back to a 3-pillar landscape for winning in mobile games:
Our focus for this series, including today’s discussion, is user acquisition.
The below is an illustrative simplification of the history of mobile gaming success, but high-level true.
In the early days of mobile, marketing innovations from TapJoy around incentivized installs created an environment in which fast follows and distribution formed the critical basis of competition to succeed at that time. At the time, TapJoy claimed their incentivized installs drove about 50% of all downloads on iOS.
Zynga won.
In response, Apple and then Google killed off incentivized installs. Then, a glut of me-too games and a change in the distribution environment created an environment where innovation, front-end engagement, and longer-term retention won the day. In this world, critical bases of competition shifted to those companies that created good game quality, had good (not necessarily great) live operations, and learned how to do UA effectively.
Supercell won.
Later, Facebook, through machine learning optimization, created the ability to target whales by enabling goal-based advertising capabilities like app event optimization (optimizing UA campaigns towards specific user targets) and value optimization (optimizing UA campaigns toward player conversion/spend in a game). The bases of competition again shifted, but this time to marketers who understood how to optimize games for whales.
4X, social casino, and other games with longer payback windows and long-term ARPU growth won.
Today, Apple’s move towards end-user privacy policies has resulted in deprecation of IDFA (Apple’s ID for advertisers that enabled the specific identification of user’s devices with associated in-game behaviors and activities).
Further, we will soon see the end of fingerprinting.
What happens then?
The Measurement Crisis
Fingerprinting is a methodology in which device characteristics such as wifi, device model, IP address, and many other markers - but not a specific device ID - effectively identify the device as a specific user with almost 100% accuracy. It’s a workaround to the end of IDFA.
In a genuinely privacy-first world, the loss of user identification will significantly impact the ability of marketers to measure the effectiveness of user acquisition campaigns.
Again, the basis of competition will shift.
Who will win in the new privacy-first world order?
How can you win?
Privacy and Measurement: A New Paradigm
The pivot towards privacy-first policies, including Apple's IDFA changes, has upended traditional measurement tactics, prompting a reevaluation of user acquisition strategies.
Industry experts Andrew Covato, Warren Woodward, and John Wright share their experiences and adjustments in this new era, highlighting the ongoing struggle to balance precision and privacy.
The Future of User Acquisition: Incrementality and Beyond
We discuss innovative approaches, including incrementality testing, MMM, Warren’s dynamic polling approach, and others as workarounds for privacy limitations and potential longer-term solutions.
The consensus? A move away from granular, user-level data towards aggregate and triangulated data models may offer a path forward, blending old-school strategies with new-world realities.
Strategic Shifts and Adaptations
Amidst the uncertainty, companies must adapt or die, exploring new methodologies and technologies to stay ahead. This potentially includes leveraging first-party data and clean rooms to maintain a competitive edge.
The panelists underscored the importance of agility and foresight, advocating for a proactive stance in navigating the mobile marketing maze.
In conclusion, the "State of Measurement" podcast series will provide in-depth discussions on the complex terrain of mobile user acquisition in a privacy-first world.
As the industry grapples with these challenges, subscribe to stay notified of new episodes in this series.
Joseph, diving into the nuances of mobile game marketing amidst the privacy-first changes is crucial. Your piece stands out for highlighting the historical perspective of mobile gaming's evolution and its impact on user acquisition strategies. It's fascinating to see how the industry's competitive basis shifts with each major change, from incentivised installs to privacy-first policies. This historical context enriches the discussion by showing that adaptability has always been key to success in mobile gaming.
IMO, the studios to watch are the hyper-casual folks like Rollic and Voodoo whose lifeblood is intertwined with low CPI. Their next steps will be telling.
Looking forward to how the series unfolds and sheds light on navigating these changes effectively.