At the Modern Growth Stack conference in Seoul, Korea, earlier this month, I presented on a topic I believe is critical for our industry's survival: Finding Alpha.
The mobile games industry is in distress, and I've been watching too many companies make the same mistakes over and over. It's time we have an honest conversation about competitive advantage and what it truly takes to thrive in this new world.
TL;DR (What “Alpha” Really Means)
Alpha = company-specific excess return—performance you earn because of your unique strategy/capabilities, not because “the market lifted all boats.” If your market is distressed, alpha isn’t optional; it’s survival.
In volatile eras, macro choices (where/how you compete) matter as much or more than micro execution (how well you operate). Don’t sprint in the wrong direction.
Play to win = identify the single highest-leverage point in your space, then go all-in on it; half-measures don’t generate alpha.
The Macro: What Changed (and Why It Matters)
Your environment sets the bases of competition. Today’s five secular shifts in mobile gaming:
Rise of China: cost structure, talent aggregation, genre dominance (4X/RPG/shooter). Compete with this reality, not against it.
Attention Economy: you’re battling live games + streaming + social; launch plans and product design must assume you’re stealing time from entrenched habits.
Age of Efficiency (post-ZIRP): capital constraints reward lean orgs, rigorous ROI, and operating leverage.
Resurgence of LiveOps: mature titles can be re-accelerated (e.g., Brawl Stars revenue 6× in 2024) if cadence, systems, and events are world-class.
AI Revolution: the most foundational tech shift now touches product, growth, and operations; winners map processes and insert AI where it compounds.
Implication: Re-choose your game. Strategy must be counter-positioned against incumbents and tuned to these macro forces, or your micro excellence won’t matter.
Three Framing Concepts Leaders Should Align On
Alpha vs. Beta: Beta = “industry return.” Alpha = your edge. Ask weekly: What’s our alpha right now? Where will it come from in the future?
Macro vs. Micro: Macro = market selection, philosophy, leverage points; Micro = tactics/process/culture. In fast-changing markets, macro errors dominate outcomes.
Play to Win: Isolate the highest-leverage constraint (distribution, data, compute, habit, content velocity, etc.) and pile resources there—not everywhere. (Talk examples illustrate state-level focus in politics and scale bets in AI; principle applies to games.)
History Still Teaches (Use It)
Distribution alpha: Tapjoy incentivized installs shifted early winners toward those with distribution focus; King + AppLift symbiosis scaled via performance affiliate models. Lesson: Distribution sometimes trumps product quality.
Monetization alpha: MZ studied Chinese MMO systems (VIP, social pressure, “gold bank”) to out-monetize peers. Lesson: Information = power!
Hybridization alpha: Whiteout Survival integrated proven top-of-funnel themes into a well-monetizing product loop. Lesson: marketing can integrate into product.
Paths to Alpha: Where I’m Betting
Here’s where I’m searching for alpha in today’s mature market, leaning on Product, Growth, LiveOps, and AI.
Pillar Combinations + AI: Look at blending growth and product, like Whiteout Survival’s marketing + product hybrids. Find synergies between product, growth, and liveops. Insight: Value may come from combinations *between* disciplines.
Product Velocity: AI’s cut design spec writing time from 12 hours to 30 minutes. But velocity isn’t just speed—it’s moving right. Find where product velocity is getting stuck. Insight: In the AI era, velocity becomes the #1 basis of competition.
Organizational Meta: AI’s compressing roles and teams. The org chart in the near future is essentially dead. Insight: Workflows should follow optimal product velocity and work not people and discipline boundaries.
Key Insight: Be clear on how you characterize your operating and competitive environment. Always ask: What game am I playing?
My Closing Challenge: What’s Your Alpha?
This talk is my call to action: In times of uncertainty, macro mastery and bold plays are the keys to winning. AI and global shifts will bring more change in the next few years than in the last 15+ years.
I’m asking myself: Am I ready?
Will you be ready to compete in the New World?
What do you think? Let’s talk in the comments—what’s your alpha?
Reach out for my slides by leaving a comment!
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